Bitcoin Magazine
Is Bitcoinâs Bull Market Truly Back?
Following a sharp multi-week selloff that dragged Bitcoin from above $100,000 to below $80,000, the recent price bounce has traders debating whether the Bitcoin bull market is truly back on track or if this is merely a bear market rally before the next macro leg higher.
Bitcoinâs latest correction was deep enough to rattle confidence, but shallow enough to maintain macro trend structure. Price seems to have set a local bottom between $76Kâ$77K, and several reliable metrics are beginning to solidify the local lows and point towards further upside.
The Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) is one of the most reliable sentiment gauges across Bitcoin cycles. As price fell, NUPL dropped into âAnxietyâ territory, but following the rebound, NUPL has now reclaimed the âBeliefâ zone, a critical sentiment transition historically seen at macro higher lows.
Figure 1: The NUPL indicates a bullish rebound in sentiment. View Live Chart
The Value Days Destroyed (VDD) Multiple weighs BTC spending by both coin age and transaction size, and compares the data to a previous yearly average, giving insight into long term holder behavior. Current readings have reset to low levels, suggesting that large, aged coins are not being moved. This is a clear signal of conviction from smart money. Similar dynamics preceded major price rallies in both the 2016/17 and 2020/21 bull cycles.
Figure 2: The largest and most experienced bitcoin holders have stopped selling. View Live Chart
Weâre also now seeing the Long Term Holder Supply beginning to climb. After profit-taking above $100K, long-term participants are now re-accumulating at lower levels. Historically, these phases of accumulation have set the foundation for supply squeezes and subsequent parabolic price action.
Figure 3: Long Term Holder BTC supply is rapidly increasing. View Live Chart
The Hash Ribbons Indicator has just completed a bullish crossover, where the short-term hash rate trend moves above the longer-term average. This signal has historically aligned with bottoms and trend reversals. Given that miner behavior tends to reflect profitability expectations, this cross suggests miners are now confident in higher prices ahead.
Figure 4: Bitcoin miners are becoming bullish once again. View Live Chart
Despite bullish on-chain data, Bitcoin remains closely tied to macro liquidity trends and equity markets, particularly the S&P 500. As long as that correlation holds, BTC will be partially at the mercy of global monetary policy, risk sentiment, and liquidity flows. While rate cut expectations have helped risk assets bounce, any sharp reversal could cause renewed choppiness for Bitcoin.
Figure 5: BTC remains highly correlated to US Equities. View Live Chart
From a data-driven perspective, Bitcoin looks increasingly well-positioned for a sustained continuation of its bull cycle. On-chain metrics paint a compelling picture of resilience for the Bitcoin bull market. The Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) has shifted from âAnxietyâ during the dip to the âBeliefâ zone after the reboundâa transition often seen at macro higher lows. Similarly, the Value Days Destroyed (VDD) Multiple has reset to levels signaling conviction among long-term holders, echoing patterns before Bitcoinâs rallies in 2016/17 and 2020/21. These metrics point to structural strength, bolstered by long-term holders aggressively accumulating supply below $80,000.
Further supporting this, the Hash Ribbons indicatorâs recent bullish crossover reflects growing miner confidence in Bitcoinâs profitability, a reliable sign of trend reversals historically. This accumulation phase suggests the Bitcoin bull market may be gearing up for a supply squeeze, a dynamic that has fueled parabolic moves before. The data collectively highlights resilience, not weakness, as long-term holders seize the dip as an opportunity. Yet, this strength hinges on more than just on-chain signalsâexternal factors will play a critical role in what comes next.
However, macro conditions still warrant caution, as the Bitcoin bull market doesnât operate in isolation. Bull markets take time to build momentum, often needing steady accumulation and favorable conditions to ignite the next leg higher. While the local bottom between $76Kâ$77K seems to hold, the path forward wonât likely feature vertical candles of peak euphoria yet. Bitcoinâs tie to the S&P 500 and global liquidity trends means volatility could emerge from shifts in monetary policy or risk sentiment.
For example, while rate cut expectations have lifted risk assets, an abrupt reversalâperhaps from inflation spikes or geopolitical shocksâcould test Bitcoinâs stability. Thus, even with on-chain data signaling a robust setup, the next phase of the Bitcoin bull market will likely unfold in measured steps. Traders anticipating a return to six-figure prices will need patience as the market builds its foundation.
If youâre interested in more in-depth analysis and real-time data, consider checking out Bitcoin Magazine Pro for valuable insights into the Bitcoin market.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.
This post Is Bitcoinâs Bull Market Truly Back? first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Matt Crosby.
Full story here:
Is Bitcoinâs Bull Market Truly Back?
Following a sharp multi-week selloff that dragged Bitcoin from above $100,000 to below $80,000, the recent price bounce has traders debating whether the Bitcoin bull market is truly back on track or if this is merely a bear market rally before the next macro leg higher.
Bitcoinâs Local Bottom or Bull Market Pause?
Bitcoinâs latest correction was deep enough to rattle confidence, but shallow enough to maintain macro trend structure. Price seems to have set a local bottom between $76Kâ$77K, and several reliable metrics are beginning to solidify the local lows and point towards further upside.
The Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) is one of the most reliable sentiment gauges across Bitcoin cycles. As price fell, NUPL dropped into âAnxietyâ territory, but following the rebound, NUPL has now reclaimed the âBeliefâ zone, a critical sentiment transition historically seen at macro higher lows.
Figure 1: The NUPL indicates a bullish rebound in sentiment. View Live Chart
The Value Days Destroyed (VDD) Multiple weighs BTC spending by both coin age and transaction size, and compares the data to a previous yearly average, giving insight into long term holder behavior. Current readings have reset to low levels, suggesting that large, aged coins are not being moved. This is a clear signal of conviction from smart money. Similar dynamics preceded major price rallies in both the 2016/17 and 2020/21 bull cycles.
Figure 2: The largest and most experienced bitcoin holders have stopped selling. View Live Chart
Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Boost Bull Market
Weâre also now seeing the Long Term Holder Supply beginning to climb. After profit-taking above $100K, long-term participants are now re-accumulating at lower levels. Historically, these phases of accumulation have set the foundation for supply squeezes and subsequent parabolic price action.
Figure 3: Long Term Holder BTC supply is rapidly increasing. View Live Chart
Bitcoin Hash Ribbons Signal Bull Market Cross
The Hash Ribbons Indicator has just completed a bullish crossover, where the short-term hash rate trend moves above the longer-term average. This signal has historically aligned with bottoms and trend reversals. Given that miner behavior tends to reflect profitability expectations, this cross suggests miners are now confident in higher prices ahead.
Figure 4: Bitcoin miners are becoming bullish once again. View Live Chart
Bitcoin Bull Market Tied to Stocks
Despite bullish on-chain data, Bitcoin remains closely tied to macro liquidity trends and equity markets, particularly the S&P 500. As long as that correlation holds, BTC will be partially at the mercy of global monetary policy, risk sentiment, and liquidity flows. While rate cut expectations have helped risk assets bounce, any sharp reversal could cause renewed choppiness for Bitcoin.
Figure 5: BTC remains highly correlated to US Equities. View Live Chart
Bitcoin Bull Market Outlook
From a data-driven perspective, Bitcoin looks increasingly well-positioned for a sustained continuation of its bull cycle. On-chain metrics paint a compelling picture of resilience for the Bitcoin bull market. The Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) has shifted from âAnxietyâ during the dip to the âBeliefâ zone after the reboundâa transition often seen at macro higher lows. Similarly, the Value Days Destroyed (VDD) Multiple has reset to levels signaling conviction among long-term holders, echoing patterns before Bitcoinâs rallies in 2016/17 and 2020/21. These metrics point to structural strength, bolstered by long-term holders aggressively accumulating supply below $80,000.
Further supporting this, the Hash Ribbons indicatorâs recent bullish crossover reflects growing miner confidence in Bitcoinâs profitability, a reliable sign of trend reversals historically. This accumulation phase suggests the Bitcoin bull market may be gearing up for a supply squeeze, a dynamic that has fueled parabolic moves before. The data collectively highlights resilience, not weakness, as long-term holders seize the dip as an opportunity. Yet, this strength hinges on more than just on-chain signalsâexternal factors will play a critical role in what comes next.
However, macro conditions still warrant caution, as the Bitcoin bull market doesnât operate in isolation. Bull markets take time to build momentum, often needing steady accumulation and favorable conditions to ignite the next leg higher. While the local bottom between $76Kâ$77K seems to hold, the path forward wonât likely feature vertical candles of peak euphoria yet. Bitcoinâs tie to the S&P 500 and global liquidity trends means volatility could emerge from shifts in monetary policy or risk sentiment.
For example, while rate cut expectations have lifted risk assets, an abrupt reversalâperhaps from inflation spikes or geopolitical shocksâcould test Bitcoinâs stability. Thus, even with on-chain data signaling a robust setup, the next phase of the Bitcoin bull market will likely unfold in measured steps. Traders anticipating a return to six-figure prices will need patience as the market builds its foundation.
If youâre interested in more in-depth analysis and real-time data, consider checking out Bitcoin Magazine Pro for valuable insights into the Bitcoin market.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.
This post Is Bitcoinâs Bull Market Truly Back? first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Matt Crosby.
Full story here:
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